The Map Scroll has visually rendered Nate Silver’s predictions of when each state would vote against a same-sex marriage ban. (You all remember Nate as our election polls crack dealer last fall. FiveThirtyEight is still alive and predicting.)
Nate explains
It turns out that you can build a very effective model by including just three variables:
1. The year in which the amendment was voted upon;
2. The percentage of adults in 2008 Gallup tracking surveys who said that religion was an important part of their daily lives;
3. The percentage of white evangelicals in the state.
. . .
Unsurprisingly, there is a very strong correspondence between the religiosity of a state and its propensity to ban gay marriage, with a particular “bonus” effect depending on the number of white evangelicals in the state.
According to Nate’s model, Iowa, which has an average level of religiosity, would pass a ban today; by 2012, it should be a toss-up; and after 2013, any ban should be defeated.
And from Feminist Philosophers, an overview of same-sex marriage rights.
